WurfWhile

Matt Yglesias has an interesting piece about educational levels around the Great Depression compared to today that reflects on Paul Krugman’s pessimism about the economy and Ryan Avent’s optimism. The question is where will our economic recovery come from (and how soon)?

I’m no economist, but my sense is we are not likely to recover much this year or next. Longer term, however, I think what President Barack Obama has outlined as his major initiatives is solid (in no particular order):

- Energy & the Environment – Alternative energy, replacing/retrofitting/designing in a more environmentally friendly/sustainable way is going to be big business with returns in reduced fuel usage and increased employment. There are already a number of players involved, from consultants like Better Environmental Solutions and the Wisconsin Energy Conservation Corporation (WECC) to a new real estate investment fund G2B Ventures. Long-term projects like high speed rail will increase employment short-term, and payoff in travel efficiencies once they’re up and running. High speed rail has the potential to revolutionize U.S. travel and become a game-changer for moving people and products.

- Health Care – this is one area where we might expect returns relatively quickly (perhaps starting in the next 2-3 years?) – and it promises long-term to reduce American business costs and increase productivity – thus increasing our economic competitiveness.

- Education speaks more directly to Matt’s comparison with education levels during the Great Depression – but even there we have so few people graduating college (and not enough graduating high school), must less taking graduate-level coursework, that there’s still room for growth (if not as much room as there was in the Depression era). An increase in technical education, like they have in Europe, might also be an area of tremendous growth.

The fact is that since the 1960s we’ve really let our country go through lack of major, smart investments in our infrastructure and society. There’s been an obvious downside to this that we’ve all experienced, but the upside is there is real room for growth. Long-term I think there’s good reason for optimism, even if short-term things do not go particularly well.

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